I agree almost 100% with this post, particularly the personal virtue and energy efficiency being a good energy policy. After all, I don't want to fund both sides of the war in Iraq. I also agree that the IEA has been misleading us. However, during the 1980 oil price spike, prices collapsed afterwards because of 3 reasons (you look too young to remember this, but Groppe should know better). Those reasons are increased fuel economy (start of CAFE for one), resumption of oil from Iran as the embargo was lifted, and our economy in recession (largely because of the energy costs).
This time around fuel economy looks to be slowly improving, and should increase even more with reasonable options out there like the Prius (for most needs) and Ford Explorer Hybrid (for larger needs) and Smart car or Versa, etc. (for smaller needs). But this time OPEC can't magically turn on the spigot anymore. You almost said as much - they want us hooked on their oil. In times past, OPEC has said $35-$40/barrel was the target price. Above that and conservation and alternative fuels start looking too attractive. Also, heavy oils like Canada tar sands are now cost effective, as well as Venezuela heavy crude. The latter tips the balance of power in OPEC away from the Middle East as Venezuela's proven reserves increase ('proven reserves' are based on oil that can be economically extracted, not on the total oil found). So OPEC would produce more if they could, but they can't. We don't know the real state of their fields, but it doesn't look good (for U.S. consumers).
Other producers are spending as much as they can to find more oil, but what they find isn't cheap. Peak oil production really is going to happen, and the first sign of it is expensive oil. The era of cheap oil is permanently over, unless we get in a recession that puts the early 80's to shame. So we might get back to $60/barrel or lower, but not before we hit sustained $150/barrel (there could be some short-term swings getting to the sub-80's due to volatility and uncertainty in the market). The sooner we prepare for peak oil, the better, but I think we missed a critical decade . This should be our top national priority right now if we want to remain a superpower, but our leaders are fiddling while Rome is becoming a tinderbox.