Posted by: James A, Sweeney
Comment: #1
Fri Nov 7, 2008 8:22 PM
Sir;... I'd love to see a candidate like Newt who could alienate the base and drive away the center...It brings to mind the possiblity of a rout, a stampede, and quiting time all rolled into one... If I have but one independent vote to give to a polarizing figure, let it be for Newt... I'm there for you buddy... Right... Thanks...Sweeney
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Posted by: Henry
Comment: #2
Tue Nov 11, 2008 6:40 PM
Bob,
If the Republicans are determined to revert to the "old-time religion", then they must be prepared to lose elections for some time yet. As close contests in Virginia and North Carolina this election showed, shoring up the Republican base is no longer suffient for winning presidential elections - it is simply too polarizing, given the rising number of independents. Unfortunately, Gingrich, who will be 69 years old by the time of 2012 election, embodies many of the qualities associated with Republicans that repelled voters last Tuesday. He is old, staunchly conservative and, by 2012, his rise and fall in national politics will be perceived - by many voters - to have occured over a decade ago. In short, he is the antithesis to the "change" offered by Obama, and only a (seriously) failed Obama presidency would make him a viable candidate; given the margin of Obama's victory, this would require the alienation of an inconceivable number of voters.
That said, many of the points made by Republicans in decades past could do with reiterating. The populist Keynesianism preached by Obama needs a supply-side counterpoint, while the idealism of both the Obama liberals and the Bush neo-cons could do with a dose of Kissinger realism. A presidential candidate with a long-term economic vision and bold plans for confronting threats to American hegemony - whether Sinic or Islamic in origin - would be a serious prospect for reviving Republican fortunes. As China continues to artificially deflate its currency, assertive intervention is needed before rapidly expanding Chinese stockpiles of U.S. dollars - a ticking inflation time bomb - gives them the upperhand in international negotiations. If Obama fails to engage in the necessary confrontation, China's rapidly growing power will become a greater concern for the American public, swinging popular opinion in favor of a more militant, Republican president. More innovative, and less ideological, proposals to prevent economic crises like the one we are currently experiencing will also be appreciated.
The albatross around the Republican Party's neck is social conservatism. As American enters the 21st century, public resentment to government intervention in private affairs is growing. On issues like gay and abortion rights, the progressive agenda is gradually making inevitable inroads. Though Republicans need not abandon their social conservatism entirely (nationwide European-style liberalism is unlikely to subsume the U.S. in the immediate future), it is no longer a sufficient point of distinction with the Democrats for the purpose of winning votes. Rather, it simply polarizes the electorate, with the "rise of the Religious Right" increasingly cited as a reason to vote Democratic. Gingrich, as a figurehead of the Republican Party establishment associated with these positions, is unlikely to bring success to the party in the short-term, and in the long-term, could do a lot to hurt it.
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