My prediction is that one – and very possibly – both national parties will arrive at the conventions this summer without a clear nominee based on the caucus-primary process. It is my belief that all – or most – of the political prognosticators are falling victim to the same error generals make – predicting the outcome of future battles based on previous wars. The lack of an heir apparent is one element – meaning no deep loyalty base forged by previous service. That fact has been noted. Two more telling unknowns to me are the number of primaries occurring all at once plus the lack of sufficient time between the early ones. When Bush lost to McCain in New Hampshire in 2000 he had three weeks – an eternity – to refocus his efforts in South Carolina. Someone could win New Hampshire and another person could win Michigan one week later; ditto South Carolina – followed by Florida so closely. It is also both conceivable – in my prediction very likely – that different front running candidates will win all or a chunk of votes in different large delegate states on the one Super Tuesday, February 5th.