One of the most surprising things about the presidential election four years ago is that the already unpopular war in Iraq was not the top issue in voter's minds. Nor was it the top national security issue.

To get elected, Sen. John McCain needs something similar to happen this year. To construct such a scenario, it is helpful to reconstruct what happened four years ago.

By Election Day 2004, Americans were already unhappy with the war in Iraq. In the national exit poll conducte ...

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